The Great Divergence: Mapping Africa’s Democratic Shocks and Successes (2019–2024)
In my opinion, Africa is currently the world’s most intense laboratory for both democratic collapse and resilience. Between 2019 and 2024, the continent accounted for one-third of global democratic declines , yet paradoxically produced nearly 25% of all global improvements . I believe this "split-screen" reality proves that the narrative of a monolithic African decline is false; instead, we are seeing a continent where the gap between stable democracies and autocratic "coup belts" is widening faster than ever. People gathered for a rally holding different signs. Why did the Sahel experience the world’s sharpest setbacks? I suspect the "contagion of the uniform" is the primary driver. Since 2020, successful military takeovers in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Guinea have erased a decade of institutional progress . I believe that the failure of democratic regimes to solve security crises in the Sahel provided the "pretext" for these juntas, turn...