The Pros and Cons of Biden Forcing Israel to End the War

 

Conflict between Israel and Hamas, the Gaza-based militant faction, has escalated since October 7, 2024, following a sudden onslaught by Hamas involving rocket and drone strikes that resulted in the deaths of numerous Israeli civilians and military personnel. Israel retaliated with extensive air and ground operations targeting both the military and political frameworks of Hamas, alongside civilian locales within Gaza. This confrontation has led to over 2,000 fatalities, predominantly among Palestinians, and has forced upwards of half a million individuals, mostly from Gaza, to flee their homes.

The United States, a principal ally and armaments provider to Israel, has been actively seeking to mediate a ceasefire and forge a diplomatic resolution to the ongoing strife, encountering opposition and critique from both parties involved. Israel has maintained its stance on persisting with its military endeavors until it successfully dismantles Hamas's capabilities and deters future aggressions. Conversely, Hamas has called for the cessation of Israel's blockade and siege of Gaza, alongside acknowledgment of its claims and interests in Jerusalem and the West Bank.

President Joe Biden, who assumed office in January 2021, has voiced support for Israel's self-defense prerogative but has concurrently appealed for a reduction in hostilities and a minimization of civilian harm and damage. Furthermore, Biden has reiterated his endorsement of a two-state resolution to the enduring Israeli-Palestinian discord, which has been at an impasse for an extended period.

Speculation exists around Biden potentially compelling Israel to conclude the conflict, a scenario posited by some analysts and commentators premised on the belief in the U.S.'s capacity and willingness to exert pressure on Israel to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations. Such coercion could entail various strategies and measures, including:

- Halting or deferring the U.S.'s military aid to Israel, valued at approximately $3.8 billion annually, which encompasses sophisticated weaponry and systems like the Iron Dome missile defense, F-35 fighter jets, and precision-guided munitions.

- Implementing or threatening sanctions against Israel, such as asset freezes, trade restrictions, or diplomatic limitations, should it continue or escalate its Gaza operations, or infringe upon international humanitarian laws or Palestinian human rights.

- Advocating or initiating actions within international bodies like the United Nations or the International Criminal Court to condemn or scrutinize Israel's war conduct, or to call for probes or interventions in the crisis.

- Acknowledging or supporting Palestinian statehood or sovereignty, or the legitimacy of Hamas, or the Palestinians' demands, including the right of return, Jerusalem's status, or future state boundaries.

The potential forcing of Israel to end the war by Biden could yield various advantages and disadvantages, contingent upon the perspectives and outcomes for the involved entities. Pros might include lifesaving and the mitigation of suffering, fostering conditions conducive to peace talks, and enhancing the U.S.'s global stature. Conversely, cons could entail exacerbating tensions, damaging U.S.-Israel relations, and diminishing the U.S.'s regional and global influence.