Amid a historic election loss, South Africa awaits the ANC’s coalition partner decision.

 

The nation is on edge as the African National Congress (ANC) takes on the unusual job of picking a coalition partner to govern South Africa. Last week's election saw the ANC lose its legislative majority for the first time in three decades of democracy, failing to garner more than half of the vote.

Historic Election Results
Since the fall of apartheid in 1994, the ANC has continuously controlled all elections. However, disillusioned people, disgruntled by continued unemployment, inequality, and continuous power outages, gave the party only 40.2% of the vote, a considerable decrease from 57.5% in the last election five years ago. Although the ANC remains the largest party, its diminished vote share makes it impossible to rule alone, plunging South Africa into unknown territory

In his weekly address on Monday, President Cyril Ramaphosa stated, “This moment in our country calls for responsible leadership and constructive engagement.”

Coalition Negotiations

Potential coalition partners for the ANC span a broad political spectrum, from the market-oriented Democratic Alliance (DA) to the radical Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), which advocates for the nationalization of mines and banks and land redistribution.

Following the official results announcement late on Sunday, ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula remarked, “We would work with anyone who wants to work with us, but not with a cap in the hand.”

A working committee of 27 ANC leaders is set to meet on Tuesday to draft a proposal for the National Executive Committee, which will convene on Wednesday to determine the way forward. Originally scheduled for Monday and Tuesday, these meetings were postponed. ANC spokesman Mahlengi Bhengu-Motsiri dismissed claims of internal strife, emphasizing that no disputes had surfaced as the meetings had not yet begun.

Both the smaller Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), with 3.9% of the vote, and the DA, which secured 21.8%, have established negotiating teams to engage with other parties. They are part of a pre-election coalition aiming to form a government that reflects the people’s demand for cooperative leadership.

“The people of South Africa spoke loudly and clearly that political parties must find each other and form a government on their behalf, as they did not give a full mandate to any single party,” said IFP leader Velenkosini Hlabisa.

Political Dynamics and Prospects for Cooperation

Experts anticipate challenging negotiations ahead. Zwelinzima Ndevu, Director of the School of Public Leadership at Stellenbosch University, noted the difficulty of forming a coalition, especially for the ANC, due to internal conflicts.

Political analyst Ralph Mathekga suggested that the DA might compel the ANC to commit to anti-corruption policies, potentially causing friction within the ANC ranks. “It’s going to be a question of whether the ANC signs up for anti-corruption or not,” Mathekga added.

Despite potential hurdles, a coalition between the ANC and the DA seems plausible given the DA’s strong provincial government performance, particularly in the Western Cape, home to Cape Town, a major tourist destination. Susan Booysen, Director of Research at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection, believes the DA has a somewhat better chance of forming a coalition with the ANC.

Financial markets have reacted positively to the prospect of an ANC-DA coalition, favoring the DA’s pro-business policies over those of the EFF or MK. The South African rand, stocks, and government bonds have recouped some losses associated with post-election uncertainty.

While a coalition government appears likely, other scenarios remain possible. One option is a government of national unity including all major parties, although this might lead to instability and deadlock. Alternatively, the ANC might form a minority government relying on confidence-and-supply agreements with other parties for key parliamentary votes.

Uncertain Alliances

Under former President Jacob Zuma, the MK party—a wildcard in the election—gained 14.6% of the vote. Given the acrimonious relationship between Zuma and Ramaphosa, an ANC-MK coalition is deemed unlikely. Zuma, a polarizing figure respected in his home region of KwaZulu-Natal, was forced to step down in 2018 amid corruption allegations. Reflecting ongoing tensions, MK has indicated it would challenge the election results in court.

Analysts have long feared that Zuma’s supporters could react violently if dissatisfied with the election outcome, recalling the riots and looting that occurred when Zuma was arrested for contempt of court in 2021.

Awaiting the ANC’s Decision

As South Africa waits for the ANC to announce its coalition partner, the political scene remains turbulent. Decisions made in the coming days will shape the country’s future, influencing social projects and economic policies. Within two weeks of the election results announcement, the newly elected parliament must convene, with one of its first tasks being the selection of South Africa’s next president. The outcome of these discussions will be crucial for the stability and progress of South Africa’s democracy.