Ethiopia warns strongly of growing tensions with Egypt and Somalia

 

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed underscored Ethiopia’s historical resilience against foreign invasions, issuing a stark warning to any nation contemplating an attack on Ethiopia. Speaking on Ethiopia's Sovereignty Day, Abiy cautioned that any country considering an invasion should “think not just once but 10 times” before making such a move.

His remarks come amid rising regional tensions, particularly involving Egypt and Somalia. Although Abiy did not directly name any countries, recent diplomatic and military maneuvers suggest that the warning was aimed at Egypt and Somalia, both of which have bolstered their military cooperation in recent months.

Somalia’s Concerns Over Somaliland Deal

Ethiopia's recent agreement with Somaliland, an autonomous region still claimed by Somalia, has sparked tensions. The deal grants Ethiopia access to a port in Somaliland, which Somalia views as an “act of aggression.” In response, Somalia has sought closer military ties with Egypt, further straining relations in the region.

Compounding these tensions, Somaliland has reportedly offered Ethiopia’s navy access to some of its coastline in exchange for Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland as an independent state, a move that further antagonizes Somalia.

Egypt's Ongoing Nile Dispute

Ethiopia’s relations with Egypt remain fraught due to the ongoing dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile. Egypt, heavily reliant on the Nile for water, fears the dam will significantly reduce its water share. The Nile conflict continues to heighten diplomatic strains between the two nations.

Following a recent military agreement, Egypt is reportedly planning to deploy up to 10,000 troops to Somalia as part of a restructured African Union (AU) force. This move, expected by the end of the year, is set to bolster Somalia’s military capabilities, complicating Ethiopia’s strategic position in the region.

Escalating Regional Tensions

Ethiopian forces have been deployed in Somalia since 2007, supporting the Somali government in its battle against al-Shabab militants as part of the AU mission. However, Somalia has announced that Ethiopian troops will be required to withdraw next year, signaling a potential shift in regional military dynamics.

While reaffirming Ethiopia’s commitment to safeguarding its sovereignty, Abiy emphasized that Ethiopia does not seek conflict but will robustly defend itself against any aggression. He highlighted Ethiopia’s historical legacy of repelling invaders, warning that any attack would be met with formidable resistance.

With the Horn of Africa’s geopolitical significance and the enduring tensions among Ethiopia, Somalia, and Egypt, the international community is closely monitoring developments in the region.